Generation mechanism and prediction of an observed extreme rogue wave
| dc.contributor.author | Gemmrich, Johannes | |
| dc.contributor.author | Cicon, Leah | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2024-03-20T22:56:01Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2024-03-20T22:56:01Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2022 | |
| dc.description.abstract | Rogue waves are individual ocean surface waves with crest height [Formula: see text] or trough-to-crest height H that are large compared to the significant wave height [Formula: see text] of the underlying sea state: [Formula: see text] or [Formula: see text]. The physics of rogue wave generation and the potential of predicting the rogue wave risk are open questions. Only a few rogue waves in high sea states have been observed directly, but they can pose a danger to marine operations, onshore and offshore structures, and beachgoers. Here we report on a 17.6m high rogue wave in coastal waters with [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] which are likely the largest normalized heights ever recorded. Simulations of random superposition of Stokes waves in intermediate water depth show good agreement with the observation. Non-linear wave modulational instability, a well known cause for rogue waves in laboratory settings, did not contribute significantly to the rogue wave generation. A parameter obtained from a routine spectral wave forecast provides a practical risk prediction for rogue waves. These results confirm that probabilistic prediction of oceanic rogue waves based on random superposition of steep waves are possible and should replace predictions based on modulational instability. | |
| dc.description.reviewstatus | Reviewed | |
| dc.description.scholarlevel | Faculty | |
| dc.description.sponsorship | We thank MarineLabs (Victoria, BC) and the Pacific Regional Institute for Marine Energy Development (University of Victoria) for access to the buoy data. Data collection was funded by an Innovate BC IGNITE grant. Data analysis was funded by Search And Rescue New Initiative Funds (Public Safety Canada) grant SN201907. | |
| dc.identifier.citation | Gemmrich, J., & Cicon, L. (2022). Generation mechanism and prediction of an observed extreme rogue wave. Scientific Reports, 12, 1718. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-05671-4 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-05671-4 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/1828/16246 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.publisher | Scientific Reports | |
| dc.rights | Attribution 4.0 International | en |
| dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | |
| dc.subject.department | Department of Physics and Astronomy | |
| dc.subject.department | School of Earth and Ocean Sciences | |
| dc.title | Generation mechanism and prediction of an observed extreme rogue wave | |
| dc.type | Article |