Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number

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Ma_J_InfectDisModel_2020.pdf (634.71 KB)

Date

2020

Authors

Ma, Junling

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Publisher

Infectious Disease Modelling

Abstract

The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure of the severeness of the epidemic, and is also closely related to the basic reproduction number. Estimating the growth rate from the epidemic curve can be a challenge, because of its decays with time. For fast epidemics, the estimation is subject to over-fitting due to the limited number of data points available, which also limits our choice of models for the epidemic curve. We discuss the estimation of the growth rate using maximum likelihood method and simple models.

Description

Keywords

Epidemic curve, Exponential growth rate, Maximum likelihood estimation, Phenomenological models

Citation

Ma, J. (2020). Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number. Infectious Disease Modelling, 5, 129-141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2019.12.009

URI

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2019.12.009
 http://hdl.handle.net/1828/11619

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