Mountain pine beetle spread in forests with varying host resistance

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dc.contributor.authorBrush, Micah
dc.contributor.authorLewis, Mark A.
dc.date.accessioned2025-04-15T19:22:06Z
dc.date.available2025-04-15T19:22:06Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.description.abstractIn the last few decades, mountain pine beetle (MPB) have spread into novel regions in Canada. An important aspect seldom captured in models of MPB spread is host resistance. Lodgepole pine, the predominant host of MPB, varies in resistance across the landscape. There is evidence for a genetic component of resistance, as well as evidence that hosts in areas where MPB has not been present historically are at risk of increased susceptibility. In addition to the spatially varying resistance of the primary host species, the eastward spread of MPB has brought them into jack pine forests. Host resistance in jack pine remains uncertain, but experiments indicate jack pine could be a suitable host. We develop a model of pine beetle spread that links pine beetle population dynamics and forest structure and resistance. We find that beetle outbreaks in the model are characterized by large transient outbreaks that move through the forest. We show how the speed of these outbreaks changes with host resistance and find that biologically plausible values for host resistance are able to stop the wave from advancing. We also find that near the threshold of resistance where the wave is able to advance, small changes in host resistance dramatically decrease the severity of the outbreak. These results indicate that planting trees selected for higher MPB resistance on the landscape may be able to slow or even stop the local spread of MPB. In terms of further eastward spread, our results indicate future outbreaks may move more quickly and be more severe if novel lodgepole pine hosts are indeed more susceptible to beetle attacks, although more research is needed into the susceptibility of jack pine.
dc.description.reviewstatusReviewed
dc.description.scholarlevelFaculty
dc.description.sponsorshipFunding for this research has been provided through grants to the TRIA-FoR Project to MAL from Genome Canada, Canada (Project No. 18202) and the Government of Alberta through Genome Alberta, Canada (Grant No. L20TF), with contributions from the University of Alberta, Canada and fRI Research, Canada (Project No. U22004). This work was supported by Mitacs, Canada through the Mitacs Accelerate Program, in partnership with fRI Research, Canada . MB acknowledges the support of the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) , [PDF - 568176 - 2022].
dc.identifier.citationBrush, M., & Lewis, M. A. (2024). Mountain pine beetle spread in forests with varying host resistance. Ecological Modelling, 500, 110911. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110911
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110911
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1828/21913
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherEcological Modelling
dc.rightsCC BY 4.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject.departmentDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics
dc.subject.departmentDepartment of Biology
dc.titleMountain pine beetle spread in forests with varying host resistance
dc.typeArticle

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