A prototype stochastic parameterization of regime behaviour in the stably stratified atmospheric boundary layer

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dc.contributor.authorAbraham, Carsten
dc.contributor.authorHoldsworth, Amber M.
dc.contributor.authorMonahan, Adam H.
dc.date.accessioned2020-11-24T00:28:23Z
dc.date.available2020-11-24T00:28:23Z
dc.date.copyright2019en_US
dc.date.issued2019
dc.description.abstractRecent research has demonstrated that hidden Markov model (HMM) analysis is an effective tool to classify atmospheric observations of the stably stratified nocturnal boundary layer (SBL) into weakly stable (wSBL) and very stable (vSBL) regimes. Here we consider the development of explicitly stochastic representations of SBL regime dynamics. First, we analyze whether HMM-based SBL regime statistics (the occurrence of regime transitions, subsequent transitions after the first, and very persistent nights) can be accurately represented by “freely running” stationary Markov chains (FSMCs). Our results show that despite the HMM-estimated regime statistics being relatively insensitive to the HMM transition probabilities, these statistics cannot all simultaneously be captured by a FSMC. Furthermore, by construction a FSMC cannot capture the observed non-Markov regime duration distributions. Using the HMM classification of data into wSBL and vSBL regimes, state-dependent transition probabilities conditioned on the bulk Richardson number (RiB) or the stratification are investigated. We find that conditioning on stratification produces more robust results than conditioning on RiB. A prototype explicitly stochastic parameterization is developed based on stratification-dependent transition probabilities, in which turbulence pulses (representing intermittent turbulence events) are added during vSBL conditions. Experiments using an idealized single-column model demonstrate that such an approach can simulate realistic-looking SBL regime dynamics.en_US
dc.description.reviewstatusRevieweden_US
dc.description.scholarlevelFacultyen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThis research has been supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council Canada (NSERC grant).en_US
dc.identifier.citationAbraham, C., Holdsworth, A. M., & Monahan, A. H. (2019). A prototype stochastic parameterization of regime behavior in the stably stratified atmospheric boundary layer. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 26, 401-427. https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-401-2019.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-401-2019
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1828/12378
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherNonlinear Processes in Geophysicsen_US
dc.subject.departmentSchool of Earth and Ocean Sciences
dc.titleA prototype stochastic parameterization of regime behaviour in the stably stratified atmospheric boundary layeren_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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