Uncertainty in model estimates of global groundwater depth

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dc.contributor.authorReinecke, Robert
dc.contributor.authorGnann, Sebastian
dc.contributor.authorStein, Lina
dc.contributor.authorBierkens, Marc
dc.contributor.authorde Graaf, Inge
dc.contributor.authorGleeson, Tom
dc.contributor.authorEssink, Gualbert Oude
dc.contributor.authorSutanudjaja, Edwin H
dc.contributor.authorRuz Vargas, Claudia
dc.contributor.authorVerkaik, Jarno
dc.contributor.authorWagener, Thorsten
dc.date.accessioned2025-09-22T16:20:50Z
dc.date.available2025-09-22T16:20:50Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.description.abstractKnowing the depth at which groundwater can be found below the land surface is critical for understanding its potential accessibility by ecosystems and society. Uncertainty in global scale water table depth (WTD) limits our ability to assess groundwater’s role in a water cycle altered by changing climate, land cover, and human water use. Global groundwater models offer a top–down pathway to gain this knowledge, but their uncertainty is currently poorly quantified. Here, we investigate four global groundwater models and reveal steady-state WTD disagreements of more than 100 m for one-third of the global land area. We find that model estimates of land areas with shallow groundwater at <10 m depth vary from 10% to 71% (mean of 23%). This uncertainty directly translates into subsequent assessments, as land areas with potential groundwater accessibility for forests, population, and areas equipped for irrigation, differ substantially depending on the chosen model. We explore reasons for these differences and find that contrary to observations, 3 out of 4 models show deeper water tables in humid than in arid climates and greatly overestimate how strongly topographic slope controls WTD. These results highlight substantial uncertainty associated with any global-scale groundwater analysis, which should be considered and ultimately reduced.
dc.description.reviewstatusReviewed
dc.description.scholarlevelFaculty
dc.description.sponsorshipRR, SJG, LS, and TW acknowledge support from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation in the framework of the Alexander von Humboldt Professorship endowed by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). IdG acknowledges funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the grant agreement GROW-101041110.
dc.identifier.citationReinecke, R., Gnann, S., Stein, L., Bierkens, M., De Graaf, I., Gleeson, T., Essink, G. O., Sutanudjaja, E. H., Vargas, C. R., Verkaik, J., & Wagener, T. (2024). Uncertainty in model estimates of global groundwater depth. Environmental Research Letters, 19(11), 114066. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad8587
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad8587
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1828/22786
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherEnvironmental Research Letters
dc.rightsCC BY 4.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectgroundwater
dc.subjectglobal models
dc.subjectuncertainty
dc.subject.departmentDepartment of Civil Engineering
dc.titleUncertainty in model estimates of global groundwater depth
dc.typeArticle

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