Climate Model Projections of 21st Century Global Warming Constrained Using the Observed Warming Trend

dc.contributor.authorLiang, Yongxiao
dc.contributor.authorGillett, Nathan P.
dc.contributor.authorMonahan, Adam H.
dc.date.accessioned2020-06-22T23:56:40Z
dc.date.copyright2020en_US
dc.date.issued2020
dc.description.abstractThe Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) archive includes larger ensembles, longer historical simulations, and models with a broader range of climate sensitivity than CMIP5. These features favor the application of observationally constrained climate projections. The 1970–2014 trend in global mean temperature is well‐correlated with projected future warming across the CMIP6 multimodel ensemble. We first evaluate an approach that weights simulations based on the realism and degree of independence of their 1970–2014 trends, by treating each historical simulation in turn as pseudo‐observations, and using the other models and weighting method to predict 21st century warming in the model concerned. The method performs well based on correlation and probabilistic measures. Applying the method using the observed 1970–2014 warming trend results in only small changes in the mean and lower bound of CMIP6 projected warming but substantially reduces the upper bound of projected early‐, mid‐ and late‐21st century warming under all SSP scenarios.en_US
dc.description.embargo2020-11-10
dc.description.reviewstatusRevieweden_US
dc.description.scholarlevelFacultyen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipWe thank World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modeling and the model output (http://esgf.llnl.gov) listed in Table S1 for their available simulations. We also thank John C. Fyfe and two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments. We acknowledge Lukas Brunner and Ruth Lorenz for publishing their weighting code. This research was supported by the Discovery Grants Program of the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canadaen_US
dc.identifier.citationLiang, Y., Gillett, N. P., & Monahan, A. H. (2020). Climate Model Projections of 21st Century Global Warming Constrained Using the Observed Warming Trend. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(12), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086757.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086757
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1828/11876
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherGeophysical Research Lettersen_US
dc.titleClimate Model Projections of 21st Century Global Warming Constrained Using the Observed Warming Trenden_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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