Using Google Trends to Inform the Population Size Estimation and Spatial Distribution of Gay, Bisexual, and Other Men Who Have Sex With Men: Proof-of-concept Study

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dc.contributor.authorCard, Kiffer G.
dc.contributor.authorLachowsky, Nathan J.
dc.contributor.authorHogg, Robert S.
dc.date.accessioned2022-03-04T18:02:35Z
dc.date.available2022-03-04T18:02:35Z
dc.date.copyright2021en_US
dc.date.issued2021
dc.descriptionWe acknowledge the use of Google Trends, open Quantum Geographic Information System, and R Studio as free and open resources that made data collection and analysis possible.en_US
dc.description.abstractBackground: We must triangulate data sources to understand best the spatial distribution and population size of marginalized populations to empower public health leaders to address population-specific needs. Existing population size estimation techniques are difficult and limited. Objective: We sought to identify a passive surveillance strategy that utilizes internet and social media to enhance, validate, and triangulate population size estimates of gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (gbMSM). Methods: We explored the Google Trends platform to approximate an estimate of the spatial heterogeneity of the population distribution of gbMSM. This was done by comparing the prevalence of the search term “gay porn” with that of the search term “porn.” Results: Our results suggested that most cities have a gbMSM population size between 2% and 4% of their total population, with large urban centers having higher estimates relative to rural or suburban areas. This represents nearly a double up of population size estimates compared to that found by other methods, which typically find that between 1% and 2% of the total population are gbMSM. We noted that our method was limited by unequal coverage in internet usage across Canada and differences in the frequency of porn use by gender and sexual orientation. Conclusions: We argue that Google Trends estimates may provide, for many public health planning purposes, adequate city-level estimates of gbMSM population size in regions with a high prevalence of internet access and for purposes in which a precise or narrow estimate of the population size is not required. Furthermore, the Google Trends platform does so in less than a minute at no cost, making it extremely timely and cost-effective relative to more precise (and complex) estimates. We also discuss future steps for further validation of this approach.en_US
dc.description.reviewstatusRevieweden_US
dc.description.scholarlevelFacultyen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipKGC was supported by a Canadian HIV Trials Network/Canadian Foundation for AIDS Research Postdoctoral Fellowship award, a Michael Smith Foundation for Health Research Trainee award (#17855), and a Canadian Institutes of Health Research Health Systems Impact Fellowship award (#HIF-403845). NJL is supported by a Michael Smith Foundation for Health Research Scholar Award (#16863).en_US
dc.identifier.citationCard, K. G., Lachowsky, N. J., & Hogg, R. S. (2021). “Using Google Trends to Inform the Population Size Estimation and Spatial Distribution of Gay, Bisexual, and Other Men Who Have Sex With Men: Proof-of-concept Study.” JMIR Public Health Surveillance, 7(11), e27385. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2196/27385en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.2196/27385
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1828/13771
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherJMIR Public Health and Surveillanceen_US
dc.subjectgay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with menen_US
dc.subjectspatial distributionen_US
dc.subjectpopulation size estimationen_US
dc.subjectpornographyen_US
dc.subjecttechnology-aided surveillanceen_US
dc.titleUsing Google Trends to Inform the Population Size Estimation and Spatial Distribution of Gay, Bisexual, and Other Men Who Have Sex With Men: Proof-of-concept Studyen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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