COVID-19 and the mystery of lumber price movements

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dc.contributor.authorZanello, Rebecca
dc.contributor.authorShi, Yin
dc.contributor.authorZeinolebadi, Atefeh
dc.contributor.authorvan Kooten, G. Cornelis
dc.date.accessioned2023-02-18T22:11:20Z
dc.date.available2023-02-18T22:11:20Z
dc.date.copyright2023en_US
dc.date.issued2023
dc.description.abstractThe COVID-19 pandemic led to unprecedented changes in the U.S. price of softwood lumber by more than 300% between 2020 and 2022. The increased volatility of lumber prices after the COVID-19 outbreak remains unexplained. In this paper, we examine how a calibrated random walk can induce similar price volatility through the development of a stochastic process. As a preferred approach, we employ an event model to estimate the impact of COVID-19 and other key events on the price of softwood lumber. The econometric model serves to provide evidence that the price volatility of softwood lumber is not completely random, and we can instead attribute part of the variation to recent regional and global events. We found that, while COVID-19 did result in a price jump, it was smaller than a rainfall event that restricted imports from Canada, while import duties and other trade actions had no discernible impact on U.S. lumber prices.en_US
dc.description.reviewstatusRevieweden_US
dc.description.scholarlevelFacultyen_US
dc.identifier.citationZanello, R., Shi, Y., Zeinolebadi, A., & van Kooten, G. C. (2023). “COVID-19 and the mystery of lumber price movements.” Forests, 14(1), 152. https://doi.org/10.3390/f14010152en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.3390/f14010152
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1828/14779
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherForestsen_US
dc.subjectlumber price volatility
dc.subjectstochastic processes
dc.subjecteconometric regression
dc.subject.departmentDepartment of Economics
dc.titleCOVID-19 and the mystery of lumber price movementsen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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