Multi-Regional Simulation of Energy Demand for Road Transport: Electrification of Passenger, Light-, Medium-, and Heavy-duty Commercial Vehicles




Lowry, Colton Amos

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Electrification is among the most effective strategies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions from road transportation. However, as more vehicles shift away from conventional drivetrains, demands on the electricity system must, necessarily, increase. In this study, a Road Transportation Energy Simulator (RTES) is developed that simulates hydrogen demand for Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV) and electricity demand profiles for Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEV). The RTES is open source, can simulate four scalable regions concurrently, and supports the entire road transport sector, including passenger/light-, medium-, and heavy-duty commercial vehicles. In the RTES, passenger vehicle demand profiles are generated with the Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Projection Lite Tool from National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL). Demand profiles for light, medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicles and all FCEVs are generated using the NREL Fleet DNA dataset along with the Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Depot Charging Tool, also developed by NREL. In British Columbia, 25 and 100 kW charging rates are sufficient for over 90% of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, respectively. Electricity demand profiles are simulated for individual commercial vehicle weight classes and act as a reference for other modelers. The RTES is then used to simulate four transportation scenarios for the province of BC in 2050. In the four scenarios, 100% of passenger and light-duty vehicles are zero emission vehicles (ZEV) while 77% of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles are ZEVs. Depending on the drivetrain proportions used, the annual energy demand varies between 33.9 and 45.54 TWh. In addition, the peak electrical demand and maximum ramping rate are dictated by the charging strategies and rates that PEVs use. Utilizing an immediate high power charging rate leads to a peak demand of 22.98 GW and a maximum ramping rate of 8.54 GW/15-minutes. On the other hand, a load leveling charging strategy reduces the peak demand and maximum ramping rate to 8.78 GW and 0.57 GW/15-minutes, respectively.



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