A mathematical model to assess the impact of testing and isolation compliance on the transmission of COVID-19

Date

2023

Authors

Gao, Shasha
Binod, Pant
Chukwu, Chidozie Williams
Kwofie, Theophilus
Safdar, Salman
Newman, Lora
Choe, Seoyun
Datta, Bimal Kumar
Attipoe, Wisdom Kwame
Zhang, Wenjing

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Publisher

Infectious Disease Modelling

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has ravaged global health and national economies worldwide. Testing and isolation are effective control strategies to mitigate the transmission of COVID-19, especially in the early stage of the disease outbreak. In this paper, we develop a deterministic model to investigate the impact of testing and compliance with isolation on the transmission of COVID-19. We derive the control reproduction number RC, which gives the threshold for disease elimination or prevalence. Using data from New York State in the early stage of the disease outbreak, we estimate RC=7.989. Both elasticity and sensitivity analyses show that testing and compliance with isolation are significant in reducing RC and disease prevalence. Simulation reveals that only high testing volume combined with a large proportion of individuals complying with isolation have great impact on mitigating the transmission. The testing starting date is also crucial: the earlier testing is implemented, the more impact it has on reducing the infection. The results obtained here would also be helpful in developing guidelines of early control strategies for pandemics similar to COVID-19.

Description

Keywords

COVID-19, Testing, Compliance, Isolation, New York state

Citation

Gao, S., Binod, P., Chukwu, C. W., Kwofie, T., Safdar, S., Newman, L., ... van den Driessche, P. (2023). A mathematical model to assess the impact of testing and isolation compliance on the transmission of COVID-19. Infectious Disease Modelling, 8(2), 427-444. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2023.04.005