QBO changes in CMIP6 climate projections
| dc.contributor.author | Butchart, Neal | |
| dc.contributor.author | Anstey, James A. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Kawatani, Yoshio | |
| dc.contributor.author | Osprey, Scott M. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Richter, Jadwiga H. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Wu, Tongwen | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2024-02-08T23:42:11Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2024-02-08T23:42:11Z | |
| dc.date.copyright | 2020 | en_US |
| dc.date.issued | 2020 | |
| dc.description.abstract | Phase 6 of the Coupled-Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the first in which a significant number of models include a well-resolved stratosphere. Changes in equatorial stratospheric variability in historical and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenario simulations are investigated in 10 models with realistic quasi-biennial oscillations (QBO). All project a weakening of the QBO throughout the stratosphere for SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios and for 1960 to 2010. The weakening is strongest in the lower stratosphere, ranging from 5.8 ± 0.5% to 4.3 ± 0.5% to 2.0 ± 0.5% per decade at 50 hPa for SSP585, SSP370, and historical simulations, respectively. At 20 hPa a weakening of both westward and eastward phases contributes though the weakening eastward phase is only seen in 7 of the 10 models. Similar robust weakening occurs for the temperature QBO, but only from 30 hPa upward. In both scenarios the QBO period decreases in 7 of the 10 models. | en_US |
| dc.description.reviewstatus | Reviewed | en_US |
| dc.description.scholarlevel | Faculty | en_US |
| dc.description.sponsorship | This research was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Programme funded by BEIS and Defra. N. B. received additional support from UK China Research and Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund. Y. K. was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grants JP15KK0178, JP17K18816, and JP18H01286 and by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (2-1904) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan. J. R. was supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement 1852977, with additional support from the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) via the National Science Foundation IA1844590. S. O. was supported by the UK National Centre for Atmospheric Science and the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/N018001/1 and NE/P006779/1). | en_US |
| dc.identifier.citation | Butchart, N., Anstey, J., Kawatani, Y., Osprey, S., Richter, J. H., & Wu, T. (2020). QBO changes in CMIP6 climate projections. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(7). https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl086903 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086903 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/1828/15971 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | en_US |
| dc.publisher | Geophysical Research Letters | en_US |
| dc.subject | Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) | |
| dc.title | QBO changes in CMIP6 climate projections | en_US |
| dc.type | Article | en_US |