Retrogressive thaw slump susceptibility in the northern hemisphere permafrost region

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dc.contributor.authorMakopoulou, Eirini
dc.contributor.authorKarjalainen, Olli
dc.contributor.authorElia, Letizia
dc.contributor.authorBlais-Stevens, Andrée
dc.contributor.authorLantz, Trevor C.
dc.contributor.authorLipovsky, Panya
dc.contributor.authorLombardo, Luigi
dc.contributor.authorNicu, Ionut C.
dc.contributor.authorRubensdotter, Lena
dc.contributor.authorRudy, Ashley C. A.
dc.contributor.authorHjort, Jan
dc.date.accessioned2025-03-26T19:41:19Z
dc.date.available2025-03-26T19:41:19Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.description.abstractMean annual temperatures in the Arctic and subarctic have increased in recent decades, increasing the number of permafrost hazards. Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs), triggered by the thawing of ground ice in permafrost soil, have become more common in the Arctic. Many studies report an increase in RTS activity on a local or regional scale. In this study, the primary goals are to: (i) examine the spatial patterns of the RTS occurrences across the circumpolar permafrost region, (ii) assess the environmental factors associated with their occurrence and (iii) create the first susceptibility map for RTS occurrence across the Northern Hemisphere. Based on our results, we predicted high RTS susceptibility in the continuous permafrost regions above the 60th latitude, especially in northern Alaska, north-western Canada, the Yamal Peninsula, eastern Russia and the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The model indicated that air temperature and soil properties are the most critical environmental factors for the occurrence of RTSs on a circumpolar scale. Especially, the climatic conditions of thaw season were highlighted. This study provided new insights into the circumpolar susceptibility of ice-rich permafrost soils to rapid permafrost-related hazards like RTSs and the associated impacts on landscape evolution, infrastructure, hydrology and carbon fluxes that contribute to global warming.
dc.description.reviewstatusReviewed
dc.description.scholarlevelFaculty
dc.description.sponsorshipThis study was supported by the University of Oulu and KVANTUM Institute within the program Changing Climate and the Northern Environment with the title: HYPERISK, Hybrid Modelling for improved permafrost risk assessments (2021–2024) and E.M., O.K., and J.H. acknowledge support from the Research Council of Finland (grant no. 315519). The authors acknowledge support from Yukon Geological Survey with contribution number 068.
dc.identifier.citationMakopoulou, E., Karjalainen, O., Elia, L., Blais‐Stevens, A., Lantz, T., Lipovsky, P., Lombardo, L., Nicu, I. C., Rubensdotter, L., Rudy, A. C. A., & Hjort, J. (2024). Retrogressive thaw slump susceptibility in the northern hemisphere permafrost region. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 49(11), 3319–3331. https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.5890
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1002/esp.5890
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1828/21686
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherEarth Surface Processes and Landforms
dc.rightsCC BY 4.0
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
dc.subjectcircumpolar susceptibility
dc.subjectmass-movements
dc.subjectpermafrost degradation
dc.subjectretrogressive thaw slumps
dc.subjectstatistical modelling
dc.subjectThermokarst
dc.titleRetrogressive thaw slump susceptibility in the northern hemisphere permafrost region
dc.typeArticle

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