Third birth intentions in Canada
Date
1997
Authors
Wang, Hui
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Abstract
The survival of any society partly depends on how efficiently its members replace themselves. Aggregate shifts in third birth rates have important implications for the future state of Canadian society. Using data from the 1995 Canadian General Social Survey, this study examines the intentions to have a third child among a sample of men and women who have had two children. The results show that fewer than 15% of respondents intend a third child, nearly 20% are uncertain about having a third child, and almost two-thirds of respondents intend to stop childbearing at parity 2. The multivariate analyses indicate that demographic factors have strong effects on third birth intentions and uncertainty. In particular, intentions and uncertainty decline with age and heterogamy in union status, but increase with remarriage. However, characteristics of individuals' existing children, such as sex, and the age of the youngest child do not significantly influence their third birth intentions. The effects of socioeconomic factors are generally weak and insignificant, although employed women are less likely to intend a third child than women who are not employed outside the home. Cultural background and gender role attitudes are also important in that Catholics, regular church attenders, and those with traditional values and attitudes are more likely to intend a third child. Moreover, the determinants of intending a third child are found to be relevant to uncertainty. Given the large proportion of couples who are uncertain about their fertility plans, the substantial degree of inconsistency between dichotomous intentions and fertility behaviour is not surprising. Further, uncertain individuals are easily influenced by period-specific factors, such as socioeconomic conditions and population policy. If there are positive reinforcements, uncertain couples may revise their uncertainty toward intentions for having a third child. Consequently, the overall fertility rate may increase. Similarly, negative reinforcements may prolong or induce a further decline in fertility.