Attribution of Arctic sea ice decline from 1953 to 2012 to influences from natural, greenhouse gas, and anthropogenic aerosol forcing
| dc.contributor.author | Mueller, Bennit L. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Gillett, Nathan P. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Monahan, Adam H. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Zwiers, Francis W. | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2025-04-10T20:27:24Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2025-04-10T20:27:24Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2018 | |
| dc.description.abstract | The paper presents results from a climate change detection and attribution study on the decline of Arctic sea ice extent in September for the 1953–2012 period. For this period three independently derived observational datasets and simulations from multiple climate models are available to attribute observed changes in the sea ice extent to known climate forcings. Here we direct our attention to the combined cooling effect from other anthropogenic forcing agents (mainly aerosols), which has potentially masked a fraction of greenhouse gas–induced Arctic sea ice decline. The presented detection and attribution framework consists of a regression model, namely, regularized optimal fingerprinting, where observations are regressed onto model-simulated climate response patterns (i.e., fingerprints). We show that fingerprints from greenhouse gas, natural, and other anthropogenic forcings are detected in the three observed records of Arctic sea ice extent. Beyond that, our findings indicate that for the 1953–2012 period roughly 23% of the greenhouse gas–induced negative sea ice trend has been offset by a weak positive sea ice trend attributable to other anthropogenic forcing. We show that our detection and attribution results remain robust in the presence of emerging nonstationary internal climate variability acting upon sea ice using a perfect model experiment and data from two large ensembles of climate simulations. | |
| dc.description.reviewstatus | Reviewed | |
| dc.description.scholarlevel | Faculty | |
| dc.description.sponsorship | We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. B.M. acknowledges funding from the Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution Network (CanSISE). M. Piron, H. Titchner, and J. Walsh are thanked for their comments on available observational data sets. J. Fyfe, N. Swart, G. Flato, R. Najafi, A. Dirkson, and B. Johnson are thanked for their comments on earlier versions of the manuscript. AHM acknowledges funding from the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC). | |
| dc.identifier.citation | Mueller, B. L., Gillett, N. P., Monahan, A. H., & Zwiers, F. W. (2018). Attribution of Arctic sea ice decline from 1953 to 2012 to influences from natural, greenhouse gas, and anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Journal of Climate, 31(19), 7771–7787. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0552.1 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0552.1 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/1828/21771 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.publisher | Journal of Climate | |
| dc.subject | UN SDG 13: Climate Action | |
| dc.subject | #journal article | |
| dc.subject | Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) | |
| dc.subject | Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) | |
| dc.subject.department | Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences | |
| dc.subject.department | School of Earth and Ocean Sciences | |
| dc.title | Attribution of Arctic sea ice decline from 1953 to 2012 to influences from natural, greenhouse gas, and anthropogenic aerosol forcing | |
| dc.type | Article |
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