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Item 1973, 2002, 2006, and 2010 marsh extent, southern Iraq marshes.(2010-04-08T23:00:31Z) Holmes, KeithItem 2015: A year in review(Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), 2016-03) Anslow, FaronIn many respects, 2015 was a record year for British Columbia, too, both seasonally and for the year as a whole. To help us place last year's conditions in BC into a historical and global context, PCIC Climatologist Dr. Faron Anslow offers his perspective on 2015. In brief, the warm winter saw records for daily maximum and minimum temperature broken in the southwest and this warmth continued into the spring, with the warmest minimum temperatures ever recorded in western and central BC and maximum temperature records broken in the north. While the summer and fall reverted to more typical conditions, the year overall remained exceptionally warm for the province.Item 2019 in BC, in climatological context(Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), 2020-08) Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC)This report places the conditions in British Columbia (BC) over 2019 into climatological context. It finds that: a moderate El Niño likely contributed to a slightly warmer than normal 2019 in BC; anomalous warmth peaked in spring, forcing rapid melt of a near-normal winter snowpack; precipitation in summer and fall was above-to-much-above normal across the province; trends in temperature are positive for the period 1950-2019 with minimum temperatures (Tmin) increasing faster than maximum temperatures (Tmax), and that precipitation shows no significant trend over the same period.Item 2022 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory(2023-04-27) Muñoz Mejia, Christian; Shore, ChloeItem 99 Year Phone Call(CTheory, 1997) Kroker, Arthur; Kroker, Marilouise; Cohen, LewisItem A brief note on the participatory research methodology(1980) Couillard, Marie-AndreeItem A case study of participatory research among farmer-settlers in Southern Phillipines(1980) Belamide, EileenItem A climatological assessment of intense extratropical cyclones from the potential vorticity perspective(Journal of Climate, 2019) Seiler, ChristianExtratropical cyclones (ETCs) are known to intensify due to three vertically interacting positive potential vorticity perturbations that are associated with potential temperature anomalies close to the surface (θB), condensational heating in the lower-level atmosphere (qsat), and stratospheric intrusion in the upper-level atmosphere (qtr). This study presents the first climatological assessment of how much each of these three mechanisms contributes to the intensity of extreme ETCs. Using relative vorticity at 850 hPa as a measure of ETC intensity, results show that in about half of all cases the largest contributions during maximum ETC intensity are associated with qsat (53% of all ETCs), followed by qtr (36%) and θB (11%). The relative frequency of storms that are dominated by qsat is higher 1) during warmer months (61% of all ETCs during warmer months) compared to colder months (50%) and 2) in the Pacific (56% of all ETCs in the Pacific) compared to the Atlantic (46%). The relative frequency of ETCs that are dominated by θB is larger 1) during colder months (13%) compared to warmer months (3%), 2) in the Atlantic (15%) compared to the Pacific (8%), and 3) in western (11%–20%) compared to eastern ocean basins (4%–9%). These findings are based on piecewise potential vorticity inversion conducted for intense ETCs that occurred from 1980 to 2016 in the Northern Hemisphere (3273 events; top 7%). The results may serve as a baseline for evaluating ETC biases and uncertainties in global climate models.Item A comprehensive, high-resolution database of historical and projected climate surfaces for western North America(Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2013) Hamann, Andreas; Wang, Tongli; Spittlehouse, David L.; Murdock, Trevor Q.With growing concern over global climate change, interpolated climate data have become increasingly important for biological research, natural resource management, and infrastructure planning. Virtually every study in the field of climate change impact and adaptation requires a variety of data that may include long-term reference data, historical time series, climate change projections, or information about recent climate trends. Such data are usually not easily accessible at the appropriate resolution, in a consistent format, and for a comprehensive set of relevant climate variables. Several comprehensive efforts exist to provide researchers as well as nonspecialists with such databases, typically in the format of gridded spatial data (E. H. Girvetz et al. reviewed such databases in their 2009 PLoS One article). However, gridded climate data with high resolution, many climate variables, long historical time series, and comprehensive future projections can become very large and difficult to use for researchers and resource managers.Item A coupled streamflow and water temperature (VIC-RBM-CE-QUAL-W2) model for the Nechako Reservoir(Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 2022) Larabi, Samah; Schnorbus, Markus A.; Zwiers, Francis W.Hydrological regulation affect both hydrological and thermal conditions in the reservoir and downstream reach, subsequently disrupting fish habitats. This paper aims at developing an integrated model simulating physical processes that govern the quantity and quality of inflow, reservoir, and outflow water of the Nechako Reservoir. Such a model would help stakeholders understand the response of in-reservoir water temperature stratification and downstream water temperature to changes in inflow and reservoir operation under future climate change.Item A distributed model to expand the reach of drug checking(Drugs Habits and Social Policy, 2022) Wallace, Bruce; Gozdzialski, Lea; Qbaich, Abdelhakim; Azam, Md. Shafiul; Burek, Piotr; Hutchison, Abby; Teal, Taylor; Louw, Rebecca; Kielty, Collin; Robinson, Derek; Moa, Belaid; Storey, Margaret-Anne; Gill, Chris; Hore, Dennis K.Purpose – While there is increasing interest in implementing drug checking within overdose prevention, we must also consider how to scale-up these responses so that they have significant reach and impact for people navigating the unpredictable and increasingly complex drug supplies linked to overdose. The purpose of this paper is to present a distributed model of community drug checking that addresses multiple barriers to increasing the reach of drug checking as a response to the illicit drug overdose crisis. Design/methodology/approach – A detailed description of the key components of a distributed model of community drug checking is provided. This includes an integrated software platform that links a multi-instrument, multi-site service design with online service options, a foundational database that provides storage and reporting functions and a community of practice to facilitate engagement and capacity building. Findings – The distributed model diminishes the need for technicians at multiple sites while still providing point-of-care results with local harm reduction engagement and access to confirmatory testing online and in localized reporting. It also reduces the need for training in the technical components of drug checking (e.g. interpreting spectra) for harm reduction workers. Moreover, its real-time reporting capability keeps communities informed about the crisis. Sites are additionally supported by a community of practice. Originality/value – This paper presents innovations in drug checking technologies and service design that attempt to overcome current financial and technical barriers towards scaling-up services to a more equitable and impactful level and effectively linking multiple urban and rural communities to report concentration levels for substances most linked to overdose.Item A dynamical climate model–driven hydrologic prediction system for the Fraser River, Canada(Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2015) Shrestha, Rajesh R.; Schnorbus, Markus A.; Cannon, Alex J.Recent improvements in forecast skill of the climate system by dynamical climate models could lead to improvements in seasonal streamflow predictions. This study evaluates the hydrologic prediction skill of a dynamical climate model–driven hydrologic prediction system (CM-HPS), based on an ensemble of statistically downscaled outputs from the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS). For comparison, historical and future climate traces–driven ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) was employed. The Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) hydrologic model setup for the Fraser River basin, British Columbia, Canada, was used as a test bed for the two systems. In both cases, results revealed limited precipitation prediction skill. For streamflow prediction, the ESP approach has very limited or no correlation skill beyond the months influenced by initial hydrologic conditions, while the CM-HPS has moderately better correlation skill, attributable to the enhanced temperature prediction skill that results from CanSIPS’s ability to predict El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its teleconnections. The root-mean-square error, bias, and categorical skills for the two methods are mostly similar. Hydrologic modeling uncertainty also affects the prediction skill, and in some cases prediction skill is constrained by hydrologic model skill. Overall, the CM-HPS shows potential for seasonal streamflow prediction, and further enhancements in climate models could potentially to lead to more skillful hydrologic predictions.Item A global, continental, and regional analysis of changes in extreme precipitation(Journal of Climate, 2021) Sun, Qiaohong; Zhang, Xuebin; Zwiers, Francis W.; Westra, Seth; Alexander, Lisa V.This paper provides an updated analysis of observed changes in extreme precipitation using high-quality station data up to 2018. We examine changes in extreme precipitation represented by annual maxima of 1-day (Rx1day) and 5-day (Rx5day) precipitation accumulations at different spatial scales and attempt to address whether the signal in extreme precipitation has strengthened with several years of additional observations. Extreme precipitation has increased at about two-thirds of stations and the percentage of stations with significantly increasing trends is significantly larger than that can be expected by chance for the globe, continents including Asia, Europe, and North America, and regions including central North America, eastern North America, northern Central America, northern Europe, the Russian Far East, eastern central Asia, and East Asia. The percentage of stations with significantly decreasing trends is not different from that expected by chance. Fitting extreme precipitation to generalized extreme value distributions with global mean surface temperature (GMST) as a covariate reaffirms the statistically significant connections between extreme precipitation and temperature. The global median sensitivity, percentage change in extreme precipitation per 1 K increase in GMST is 6.6% (5.1% to 8.2%; 5%–95% confidence interval) for Rx1day and is slightly smaller at 5.7% (5.0% to 8.0%) for Rx5day. The comparison of results based on observations ending in 2018 with those from data ending in 2000–09 shows a consistent median rate of increase, but a larger percentage of stations with statistically significant increasing trends, indicating an increase in the detectability of extreme precipitation intensification, likely due to the use of longer records.Item A long-term, temporally consistent, gridded daily meteorological dataset for northwestern North America(Scientific Data, 2019) Schoeneberg (Werner), Arelia T.; Schnorbus, Markus A.; Shrestha, Rajesh R.; Cannon, Alex J.; Zwiers, Francis W.; Dayon, Gildas; Anslow, FaronWe describe a spatially contiguous, temporally consistent high-resolution gridded daily meteorological dataset for northwestern North America. This >4 million km2 region has high topographic relief, seasonal snowpack, permafrost and glaciers, crosses multiple jurisdictional boundaries and contains the entire Yukon, Mackenzie, Saskatchewan, Fraser and Columbia drainages. We interpolate daily station data to 1/16° spatial resolution using a high-resolution monthly 1971–2000 climatology as a predictor in a thin-plate spline interpolating algorithm. Only temporally consistent climate stations with at least 40 years of record are included. Our approach is designed to produce a dataset well suited for driving hydrological models and training statistical downscaling schemes. We compare our results to two commonly used datasets and show improved performance for climate means, extremes and variability. When used to drive a hydrologic model, our dataset also outperforms these datasets for runoff ratios and streamflow trends in several, high elevation, sub-basins of the Fraser River.Item A new statistical approach to climate change detection and attribution(Climate Dynamics, 2017) Ribes, Aurélien; Zwiers, Francis W.; Azaïs, Jean-Marc; Naveau, PhilippeWe propose here a new statistical approach to climate change detection and attribution that is based on additive decomposition and simple hypothesis testing. Most current statistical methods for detection and attribution rely on linear regression models where the observations are regressed onto expected response patterns to different external forcings. These methods do not use physical information provided by climate models regarding the expected response magnitudes to constrain the estimated responses to the forcings. Climate modelling uncertainty is difficult to take into account with regression based methods and is almost never treated explicitly. As an alternative to this approach, our statistical model is only based on the additivity assumption; the proposed method does not regress observations onto expected response patterns. We introduce estimation and testing procedures based on likelihood maximization, and show that climate modelling uncertainty can easily be accounted for. Some discussion is provided on how to practically estimate the climate modelling uncertainty based on an ensemble of opportunity. Our approach is based on the “models are statistically indistinguishable from the truth” paradigm, where the difference between any given model and the truth has the same distribution as the difference between any pair of models, but other choices might also be considered. The properties of this approach are illustrated and discussed based on synthetic data. Lastly, the method is applied to the linear trend in global mean temperature over the period 1951–2010. Consistent with the last IPCC assessment report, we find that most of the observed warming over this period (+0.65 K) is attributable to anthropogenic forcings (+0.67 ± 0.12 K, 90 % confidence range), with a very limited contribution from natural forcings (−0.01 ± 0.02 K).Item A note on the Participatory Research Project in the Asian region(1981) Tandon, RajeshItem A onipresença do plástico na vida cotidiana: um exercício de foto voz em comunidade periférica de São Paulo(Diálogos Socioambientais, 2025) Gutberlet, Jutta; Lopes Francelino Gonçalves-Dias, SylmaraO exercício de foto voz realizado por alunos de pós-graduação da USP explorou a onipresença do plástico em uma comunidade periférica do município de São Paulo. O exercício foi realizado no contexto de uma disciplina de pós graduação onde os estudantes visitaram o bairro Jardim Keralux, local marcado por contaminação do solo e grande vulnerabilidade socioambiental. Utilizou-se a técnica de foto voz e a caminhada transversal, como abordagem metodológica, onde os alunos registraram impactos do plástico e interagiram com a comunidade.O aprendizado foi enriquecido pelo contato direto dos alunos com a realidade periférica de São Paulo e seus moradores, ampliando sua compreensão sobre os desafios enfrentados por populações que vivem num contexto vulnerabilizado por múltiplas intersecções. A atividade promoveu para todos participantes reflexões sobre desigualdade, planejamento urbano precário e injustiça socioambiental.Item A review: The participatory research project(Learning, 1978) MacNeil, TeresaParticipatory Research is a project of the International Council for Adult Education and has as its goal "the study and dissemination of information about research processes which focus on popular groups in the exploration and transformation of their own reality. " The current manifestation of its work is in the form of four Working Papers. I'm inclined to say three working papers since the fourth is an annotated bibliography and as such, does not challenge the reader to modify its contents as do the ideas in a working paper. The modification of the contents of each of these papers is what their producers have explicitly invited through their direction to "please duplicate and distribute these papers at will. We would be interested to know if you do." That sort of open invitation is truly in keeping with adult education tradition if not with the spirit of our current copyright legislation.Item A short note on the use of daily climate data to calculate Humidex heat‐stress indices(International Journal of Climatology, 2023) Diaconescu, Emilia; Sankare, Housseyni; Chow, Kenneth; Murdock, Trevor Q.; Cannon, Alex J.The projected increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events due to climate change means an associated increase in risk of heat‐related illnesses and mortality. Public health systems need to be prepared to identify and reduce the susceptibility of vulnerable populations to increased occurrence of heat‐related illness and stress. To facilitate this, climate services have begun developing climate change projections for heat‐stress indices based on exceedances of thresholds used operationally in meteorological heat warning systems. This task is complicated by the fact that heat‐stress indices are generally computed using hourly data whereas climate model outputs are often archived at daily or longer time steps. This study focuses on Humidex, a heat‐stress index used in heat alerts issued by the Meteorological Service of Canada. Several potential solutions for computing robust Humidex indices using daily data are examined, including a new approximation method. Indices obtained with the new method are compared with indices obtained using the classic method based on hourly data as well as with other two methods based on average daily values. The new approximation gives good estimations for humidex indices, while the daily‐average‐value methods present biases with respect to the hourly‐value method.