Mountain pine beetle outbreak duration and pine mortality depend on direct control effort

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dc.contributor.authorKunegel-Lion, Mélodie
dc.contributor.authorLewis, Mark A.
dc.date.accessioned2025-04-15T19:22:07Z
dc.date.available2025-04-15T19:22:07Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.description.abstractThe efficacy of direct control methods in bark beetle outbreaks is a disputed topic. While some studies report that control reduces tree mortality, others see little effect. Existing models, linking control rate to beetle population dynamics and tree infestations, give insights, but there is a need to take into account the environment spatial variability and its impact on beetle life cycle. Here, we use natural variability found in a carefully monitored and controlled infestation to simulate outbreak dynamics under different control effort and to explore the impact of control on outbreaks suppression and tree mortality. Our semi-empirical predictive model of the number of infested trees as a function of ecological and environmental variables is coupled to a simulation model for infestation dynamics. We show that even a little control can have a major impact on the number of infested trees after several years of sustained effort. However, a moderate control of 60% is required to reduce the beetle population on the long term. Furthermore, a control rate of 69-83% is needed to achieve outbreak suppression in under 13 years depending on the abundance of incoming flights from outside sources.
dc.description.reviewstatusReviewed
dc.description.scholarlevelFaculty
dc.description.sponsorshipThis research was supported by a grant to M.A.L. from the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada (grant no. NET GP 434810-12) to the TRIA Network, with contributions from Alberta Agriculture and Forestry, Foothills Research Institute, Manitoba Conservation and Water Stewardship, Natural Resources Canada-Canadian Forest Service, Northwest Territories Environment and Natural Resources, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, Saskatchewan Ministry of Environment, West Fraser and Weyerhaeuser. M.A.L. is also grateful for the support through the NSERC, Canada Discovery and the Canada Research Chair programs .
dc.identifier.citationKunegel-Lion, M., & Lewis, M. A. (2020a). Mountain pine beetle outbreak duration and pine mortality depend on direct control effort. Journal of Environmental Management, 260, 110167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110167
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110167
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1828/21937
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherJournal of Environmental Management
dc.rightsCC BY-NC-ND 4.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subjectinsect epidemics
dc.subjectpest management
dc.subjectpopulation modelling
dc.subjectsimulations
dc.subjectdirect control
dc.titleMountain pine beetle outbreak duration and pine mortality depend on direct control effort
dc.typeArticle

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