Estimating the historic probability of stand-replacement fire using the age-class distribution of undisturbed forest
| dc.contributor.author | Reed, William J. | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2009-09-02T00:27:38Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2009-09-02T00:27:38Z | |
| dc.date.copyright | 1993 | en |
| dc.date.issued | 2009-09-02T00:27:38Z | |
| dc.description | Originally DMS-509-IR (May '89) | en |
| dc.description.abstract | A simple probabilistic model for the destruction of forest stands by fire is used to determine a likelihood function for the problem of estimating the per-annum probability of stand-replacement fire using data in the form of areas in various age classes of undisturbed old-growth forest. This enables the estimation of either an age-independent fire probability or of the parameters of a parametrically defined age-dependent probability. The model includes contagion effects (the probability of a stand burning being increased by other stands burning). Maximum likelihood is used to obtain estimates of the age-independent per annum probability of stand-replacement fire (or the parameters of an age-dependent model), along with a contagion parameter. Confidence intervals for the fire probability are also obtained. | en |
| dc.description.sponsorship | NSERC Grant A7252 | en |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/1828/1712 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | en |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | DMS-634-IR | en |
| dc.subject | stand replacement fire | |
| dc.subject | even-aged stands | |
| dc.subject | maximum likelihood | |
| dc.subject | contagion | |
| dc.subject | Polya's Urn Scheme | |
| dc.subject | Dirichlet distribution | |
| dc.subject | technical reports (mathematics and statistics) | |
| dc.subject.department | Department of Mathematics and Statistics | |
| dc.title | Estimating the historic probability of stand-replacement fire using the age-class distribution of undisturbed forest | en |
| dc.type | Technical Report | en |